Emas melanjutkan penurunan tajamnya di awal minggu, dengan harga spot sempat turun di bawah $4,300 per ounce setelah aksi jual tajam pada hari Jumat. Logam ini menyentuh level terendah intraday di dekat $4,280, level terlemah sejak Maret, memperpanjang penurunan dua sesi lebih dari $150 karena investor menyerap dampak dari laporan pekerjaan AS yang jauh lebih kuat dari perkiraan.
The latest nonfarm payrolls data shifted the macro narrative away from slowdown risk and toward renewed labor market strength, reducing the urgency for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Instead, traders are now debating whether the Fed might have to tighten again, as resilience in employment undercuts the case for easing and reinforces a higher-for-longer policy stance.
Ekspektasi tingkat suku bunga diubah secara agresif setelah laporan tersebut, dengan pasar berjangka menyiratkan sekitar 72 persen kemungkinan setidaknya satu kenaikan suku bunga Fed tambahan pada bulan Desember, menurut alat FedWatch CME. Perubahan sikap hawkish tersebut mendorong imbal hasil Treasury 10-tahun ke level tertinggi dalam dua minggu pada hari Jumat dan membuatnya naik lagi pada hari Senin, sehingga meningkatkan opportunity cost untuk memegang aset-aset yang tidak memberikan imbal hasil seperti emas.
Geopolitics added a further twist but did not deliver the usual support for bullion. Rising tensions involving Iran sent crude oil prices more than $3 a barrel higher as traders assessed the risk of broader escalation. While gold is traditionally treated as both an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset, the move in yields dominated price action because any inflation impulse from higher energy costs fed back into expectations for tighter monetary policy.
Trading Insight
For traders, the shift in the Fed narrative is pivotal. As long as markets price in a rising chance of another hike and longer-dated yields remain under upward pressure, rallies in gold are likely to face selling interest from macro and systematic accounts rotating toward interest-bearing assets. Short-term players will be watching incoming US data for signs that labor strength was a one-off. Until that happens, momentum and rate-sensitive flows may continue to lean against the metal on strength.
Key Levels
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