SpaceX reports third-quarter results today after the US close, followed by a webcast at 4:30 p.m. ET. Estimates point to earnings of 13 cents a share on $12.8 billion in revenue, with investors expecting a return to profit after a difficult stretch for AI-related stocks that has pressured the sector for weeks. The report arrives at a moment when the market is scrutinising whether heavy infrastructure spending can translate into durable revenue growth, and the company's numbers will be read as a test of that thesis by analysts and traders alike. The company's results will be compared against the expectations set by recent guidance, and any deviation could trigger a sharp move in the shares.

Shares rose 1.3% to $147.96 on Monday, leaving them 9.6% above June's $135 IPO price. The recovery follows a difficult stretch for AI-related stocks as investors question whether infrastructure spending can generate sufficient returns, particularly when borrowing costs remain elevated and the pace of revenue growth is uncertain. The stock's ability to hold above its IPO price is a constructive sign, though the advance has been uneven and sensitive to shifts in risk appetite across the technology sector and the broader market.

Monday's options pricing implied a move of roughly 7.5% in either direction by week's end. Applied to the closing price, that is $11 a share. The estimate measures anticipated volatility rather than predicting whether earnings will send the stock higher or lower, and it reflects the uncertainty surrounding the report. Traders are positioning for a significant swing, which suggests the results could be a catalyst for a sustained move in either direction depending on the numbers and guidance provided by management. The implied move is calculated from the price of options expiring this week, and it provides a useful benchmark for the expected reaction.

Second-quarter capital expenditure reached $18.4 billion, including $15.8 billion for AI, against total quarterly revenue of $7.8 billion. The scale of the spending highlights the intensity of the AI infrastructure race and the pressure on companies to demonstrate that the investment can generate returns at a sustainable pace. Investors will be watching whether the company can show that the spending is producing measurable revenue growth rather than simply expanding the cost base, which would weigh on margins over time.

AI revenue reached $2.6 billion last quarter, but the division recorded a $1.3 billion operating loss despite positive adjusted EBITDA. The gap between revenue growth and profitability is a central concern for investors, who want to see a credible path to sustainable earnings rather than continued losses funded by other parts of the business. The company's ability to narrow that gap will be a key determinant of whether the stock can sustain its current valuation, particularly if interest rates remain elevated for longer than expected.

Starlink remains the established earnings contributor. Connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.3 billion in the second quarter, generating $1.7 billion in operating profit. Subscribers reached 12 million, demonstrating that the satellite internet business can fund the company's broader ambitions and provide a stable revenue base. The strength of Starlink offers a contrast to the loss-making AI division and underscores the importance of diversification in the company's revenue mix as it scales its operations.

SpaceX ended June with $100 billion in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, providing substantial investment capacity. Tuesday's cash-flow statement will show how that position has changed, and whether the company is deploying capital at a pace that can be sustained without straining the balance sheet. The level of cash generation will be an important input for investors assessing whether the company can fund its ambitious spending plans without external financing, which would dilute existing shareholders.

Musk pledged Monday to give one of his own SpaceX shares to every child in America next year, following Anthropic's proposed public-benefit fund. With 73 million US children, the potential gift would exceed $10 billion at recent prices. Eligibility and distribution arrangements remain unclear, and investors are watching for any details on how the pledge would be structured and whether it would have any material impact on the company's share count or governance structure over the coming quarters.

In other news, merger speculation involving Tesla remains another possible earnings-call topic, but neither company nor Musk has committed to a deal. The more concrete evidence of growth will be AI revenue conversion, Starlink margins and spending commitments, which are the metrics that will determine whether the stock can sustain its valuation. Management's commentary on these points will be closely parsed by investors looking for clarity on the company's direction and its ability to execute on its long-term strategy.

From a technical perspective, SpaceX is holding above its IPO price, which is a constructive sign after the recent volatility in growth stocks. A decisive move above $150 could attract further buying, while a break below $140 might signal renewed caution among investors who are still evaluating the AI investment cycle. The stock's price action will likely be influenced by both the earnings results and the broader market's assessment of the technology sector and its growth prospects.

The options market's implied 7.5% move reflects the uncertainty surrounding the report. Traders are positioning for a significant swing, which suggests the results could be a catalyst for a sustained move in either direction depending on the numbers and guidance, and the reaction could set the tone for the rest of the week. Volume and open interest will be important indicators of how traders are positioning themselves ahead of the event, and any divergence between the two could signal a shift in sentiment.

Overall, SpaceX enters Tuesday's report with high expectations and elevated volatility. The company's ability to demonstrate progress on AI monetization, Starlink margins and capital discipline will likely determine whether the stock can sustain its recovery or face another bout of selling pressure as investors reassess the pace of returns. The report will be a key test of the market's confidence in the AI infrastructure theme and the company's ability to execute on its ambitious plans. Investors will also be watching for any commentary on the competitive landscape and the company's ability to maintain its market position.

Trading Insight

SpaceX rose 1.3% to $147.96 ahead of Tuesday's Q3 earnings, with options implying a 7.5% move. Key support at $140. Watch earnings for direction.